Özet
Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.
Howard Raiffa was born in the Bronx, New York on January 24, 1924. He was attending City College when he enlisted in the Army Air Corps, where he was a radar specialist. He received a bachelor's degree in mathematics in 1946, a master's degree in statistics, and a doctorate in mathematics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. He taught at Columbia University from 1952 to 1957 and then joined the faculty of the business school at Harvard University. He was a co-founder of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard (now the Harvard Kennedy School). He was a member of the university faculty for 37 years before retiring in 1994.
He pioneered what became known as decision science - a discipline that encompasses negotiating techniques, conflict resolution, risk analysis, and game theory. He was the author of 11 books including Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey written with R. Duncan Luce, Applied Statistical Decision Theory written with Robert Schlaifer, The Art and Science of Negotiation: How to Resolve Conflicts and Get the Best Out of Bargaining, Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty, and Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions written with John S. Hammond and Ralph L. Keeney. He died from Parkinson's disease on July 8, 2016 at the age of 92.
(Bowker Author Biography)
