New uncertainty concepts in hydrology and water resources

One of the greatest problems hydrology research faces is how to quantify uncertainty, which is inherent in every hydrological process. This overview of uncertainty emphasizes non-orthodox concepts, such as random fields, fractals and fuzziness. This book reviews alternative and conventional methods of risk and uncertainty representation in hydrology and water resources. The water-related applications discussed in the book pertain to areas of strong interest, such as multifractals and climate change impacts. The authors represent a variety of research backgrounds, achieving a broad subject coverage. The material covered provides an important insight into theories of uncertainty related to the field of hydrology. The book is international in its scope, and will be welcomed by researchers and graduate students of hydrology and water resources.

List of authors

Preface

Part I Introduction

1 Hydrological uncertainty in perspectiveZ. W. Kundzewicz

Part II Facets of Uncertainty

2 Bayesian relative information measure - a tool for analysing the outputs of general circulation modelsM. E. Moss

3 A stochastic weather generator using atmospheric circulation patterns and its use to evaluate climate change effectsA. Bßrdossy

4 Hydrological uncertainty - floods of LakeEyre V. Kotwicki and Z. W. Kundzewicz

5 Some aspects of hydrological design under non-stationarityW. G. Strupczewski and H. T. Mitosek

6 New plotting position rule for flood records considering historical data and palaeologic informationGuo Sheng Lian

Part III Novel Approaches to Uncertainty: Fractals, Fuzzy Sets and Pattern Recognition, Non-Parametric Methods

7 Dispersion in stratified soils with fractal permeability distributionM. W. Kemblowski and Jet-Chau Wen

8 Multifractals and rainS. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer

9 Is rain fractal?I. Zawadzki

10 Multifractal structure of rainfall occurrence in West AfricaP. Hubert and F. Friggit and J. P. Carbonnel

11 Analysis of high-resolution rainfall dataK. P. Georgakakos and M. B. Sharifi and P. L. Sturdevant

12 Application of fuzzy theory to snowmelt runoffK. Mizumura

13 On the value of fuzzy concepts in hydrology and water resources managementJ. Kindler and S. Tyszewski

14 Application of neural network in groundwater remediation under conditions of uncertaintyR. S. Ranjithan and J. W. Eheart and J. H. Garrett, Jr.

15 Application of pattern recognition to rainfall-runoff analysisK. Mizumura

16 Nonparametric estimation of multivariate density and nonparametric regressionW. Feluch

17 Nonparametric approach to design flood estimation with pre-gauging data and informationGuo Sheng Lian

Part IV Random Fields

18 Analysis of regional drought characteristics with empirical orthogonal functionsI. Krasovskaia and L. Gottschalk

19 Worth of radar data in real-time prediction of mean areal rainfall by nonadvective physically-based modelsK. P. Georgakakos and W. F. Krajewski

20 Uncertainty analysis in radar-rainfall estimationW. F. Krajewski and J. A. Smith

21 Design of groundwater monitoring networks for landfillsP. D. Meyer and J. W. Eheart and R. S. Ranjithan and A. J. Valocchi

22 Spatial variability of evaporation from the land surface - random initial conditionsR. J. Romanowicz and J. C. I. Dooge and J. P. O'Kane

23 Detecting outliers in flood data with geostatistical methodsL. Gottschalk and I. Krasovskaia and Z. W. Kundzewicz

Part V Time Series and Stochastic Processes

24 Prediction uncertainty in seasonal partial duration seriesP. F. Rasmussen and D. Rosbjerg

25 A daily streamflow model based on a jump-diffusion processF. Konecny and H. P. Nachtnebel

26 The influence of time discretization on inferred stochastic properties of point rainfallS. Weglarczyk

27 The distribution of the 1-day total precipitation amountW. Jakubowski

28 Analysis of outliers in Norwegian flood dataL. Gottschalk and Z. W. Kundzewicz

29 Stochastic modelling of the operation of hydrants in an irrigation networkG. Tsakiris and O. Manoliadis

30 Order and disorder in hydroclimatological processesK. Kowalski

31 Towards the physical structure of river flow stochastic processJ. J. Napi=rkowski and W. G. Strupczewski

Part VI Risk, Reliability and Related Criteria

32 Stochastic approach to non-point pollution of surface watersE. J. Plate

33 Statistically safe sets methodology for optimal management of reservoirs in risk situationsA. Karbowski

34 Risk assessment in control of reservoir systemsA. Kozlowski and A. Lodzinski

35 Reliability-related criteria in water supply system studies Z. W. KundzewiczA. Laski

36 Reliability analysis of reservoir operationJ. J. Bogardi and A. Verhoef

37 Composite risk model of Ogee type spillwayM. Sowinski and M. I. Yusuf

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Table of Contents